Doge (DOGE) has continued it’s run from last week reaching a height of 170% gain over 8 days before a pullback.
Holochain (HOT) is up 56% this week as one of the cheapest coins relative to Bitcoin on Binance.
LTC- Global Litecoin Summit will be taking place in San Francisco on September 14th. Charlie Lee will be in attendance and speaking at the event.
ZCL- Anonymous Bitcoin will be forked from Zclassic on September 10th. Holders of Zclassic at the time of the fork will receive a 2:1 ratio of Anonymous Bitcoin.
WAVES- Waves decentralized exchange will be the next project to enable smart contracts on their platform September 10th.
Goldman Sachs Trading Desk- Goldman Sachs noted that the development of a Cryptocurrency Trading Desk was based on fake news. However, they are focusing on custody solutions for cryptocurrencies.
Mt Gox Bitcoin Whale- There has been a Bitcoin wallet with $844 Million in USD moving funds to exchanges. $100 Million worth of Bitcoin was moved to Binance and Bitfinex over a 10-day period before this week’s selloff occurred.
Volkswagen Using Iota DAG Technology- Volkswagen will be releasing a digital carpass in Q1 of 2019 to track data for evaluating car performance using Iota’s Tangle technology.
BTC Market Activity
We saw 4 rejections in Bitcoin from the $7400 price level before massive selling pressure on September 5th caused a 15% decline in price. This rapid selling occurred over a 24-hour period with Bitcoin finding support at $6300. The drop came after Bitcoin had been grinding higher over a 2-week period establishing that sellers are still in control almost 9 months into this bear market. Shorts on Bitfinex are back up near all-time highs after an initial jump of 50% last Saturday. The movement of over $100 Million in Bitcoin to exchanges from a Mt Gox wallet holding $844 Million caused concern days before the sell-off occurred. Focus is shifting back to the $5700-$6000 support zone with concerns Bitcoin could move into that range for a 7th retest in the last 8 months.
DOGE– Doge had a major breakout this week from a long-term down-sloping trendline. This 170% run-up occurred after it was listed on yahoo finance. It is worth noting that Doge has remained strong during the bitcoin sell-off this week.
XRP- Ripple has broken down from a symmetrical triangle that was forming on the 4-hr timeframe. Long-term support was tested for a 2nd time and held at 25 cents. 33 cents is the next level of resistance we are watching.
ADA- Cardano was rejected from the 10.8 cent price level 4 times before testing support at 8.5 cents for a 3rd time. It is living below this support now and if it fails to break back above this level, we are looking at the final line of support at 7.8 cents. There is the possibility that a double bottom is forming on the 4-hr time frame. A break above 9 cents would confirm this.
Etranl Token (XET) ran up 941% this week. The coin is looking to be the lowest cost solution in overseas remittance.
Electroneum (ETN) powered upward 170% this week after a successful rollout of its mobile payment app with supposedly 1.1 million registered users.
ADA– Kraken will be listing Cardano today (along with QTUM)
BTC – Today Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME expire
DOGE– Dogecoin will have a fork named Dogethereum (DOGX) on September 30th.
XMR – Monero may be releasing their bullet-proof protocol September 30th to replace their Range of Proof. The protocol is implementing zero-knowledge proof (ZK Snarks)
Ethereum Gov’t Bonds – BTCManager.com reports that the Austrian government is auctioning €1.15 Billion worth of bonds on the Ethereum blockchain.
Ethereum Derivatives – LedgerX is looking to provide derivatives for Ethereum. They currently provide Bitcoin derivatives and may have the Ether derivatives as soon as October 2018
BTC Market Activity
Bitcoin has been stable this week between $6,400 and $6,800. The $6,800 resistance is one that we’ve monitored in the past. Overcoming this resistance may open up a rally per Bitcoin’s volume profile. This was what happened earlier in the month as Bitcoin rallied up to $7,400. Typically, we’ve seen higher price action as Bitcoin CME Futures expire so this weekend may have a spike in volatility.
Havven (HAV)- This stable coin is up 59% this week as rumors about tether spread.
0x (ZRX)- 0x has been added to Coinbase and is up over 20% in the last 24 hours.
ETH- Ethereum’s Constantinople hard-fork will be conducted on October 14th. This will make the network more efficient and reduce the mining reward from 3 ETH per block to 1.
ZRX- Coinbase Pro has listed 0x, however, only deposits are available for now. Trading will start sometime in the next 2 days.
CBOE Futures Expiration- October 17th is the expiration date of CBOE futures contracts. Typically, Bitcoin see’s volatility on or around their expiration dates.
Bitfinex and Tether problems- Bitfinex has suspended all fiat deposits for one week. There have been rumors about banking issues with speculation that they may be insolvent.
Coinbase’s Index Fund – Coinbase has announced that the index fund they launched earlier this year will be shutting down. They have instead decided to focus on retail investors through a new product they are offering called Coinbase Bundle.
BTC Market Activity
We saw a crypto market sell-off this week as Bitcoin’s price broke down after forming an equilibrium pattern over the last month. Fortunately, long-term support has held at $6000 for now. Complications with Bitfinex have likely left investors shaken as rumors of banking problems and insolvency spread. The $5800-$6100 range has been tested many times this year as the bear market persists. Each time this support zone is tested it becomes weaker until price eventually breaks below it. While this has yet to happen for Bitcoin, it is still certainly possible if there is significant follow through from bears. Until Bitcoin breaks below this level, we are staying engaged and waiting for the market to tell us to exit.
We are staying optimistic with positive news coming up in November from The Intercontinental Exchange’s Bakkt project. This will further spread cryptocurrency adoption as Starbucks, Boston Consulting Group and Microsoft jump onboard.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals are stronger than they have ever been with adoption and institutional pipelines continuing to develop. Regardless of Bitcoin’s price action this year, we are confident the future is bright for cryptocurrencies overall.
The crypto market has had an interesting week as many altcoins saw gains dry up when Bitcoin made its move lower. Overall, many alts still have good set-ups with support holding for many projects. If Bitcoin makes another move lower, we could see a market wide sell off pushing altcoins below support levels and back into a free fall.
DCR- Decred moved this week from $37 to $46 but retraced the entire move after Bitcoin sold off. However, it continues to make higher lows keeping its trend intact. This is the same situation as ICX and AION mentioned last week. These set-ups remain valid until support fails which would likely be caused by a move to the down side in Bitcoin.
SUB – Substratum is one of many lower cap altcoins that have fully retraced their moves in 2017 relative to both BTC and USD prices. This retrace means that accumulation can begin again with the start of a new market cycle after Bitcoins lowest point has been confirmed.
Odyssey r(OCN) an up 37.92% this week as the market heated up.
Decred (DCR) spiked a little over 6% in intraday trading as it got listed on KuCoin.
WGR – Wagerr just started “direct-chain” betting. The mainnet fork allows users to place bets against the chain, with the chain burning and minting coins as require
BTG – Bitcoin Gold will be delisted from Bittrex today after details of an $18 million hack from May emerged this week.
BTC – Morgan Stanley is looking into jumping into the Bitcoin derivatives market.
Goldman Sachs Trading Desk- Goldman Sachs noted that the development of a Cryptocurrency Trading Desk was based on fake news. However, they are focusing on custody solutions for cryptocurrencies. UPDATE: The CFO of Goldman Sachs clarified that there is still ongoing development of a cryptocurrency trading desk.
OKEx Founder – The founder of the number #2 cryptocurrency exchange by adjusted volume was questioned by the Shanghai authorities about potential fraud in the
BTC Market Activity
Bitcoin reaching the bottom of a triangle formation that started at the peak of bitcoin in December 2017. The end of this pattern may see a surge in the coin’s volatility. Bitcoin’s fundamentals suggest that with bitcoin still seeing unusually high, normalized, NVT, the coin is likely to depreciate through $6,200 before holding steady in the $4,000 range. However, our analysis of trading activity has found that there is a “buy wall” of orders at the $6,000 level determined to keep Bitcoin’s price above this resistance line. This buy wall on bitcoin’s order books may signify a buying pressure that could spark a bitcoin rally as selling pressure wanes.
ADA, ADX, BTC, DCR, and XRP – On Wednesday, prior to the small rally in the cryptocurrency markets, we found that Cardano (ADA), AdEx (ADX), bitcoin (BTC), Decred (DCR) and Ripple (XRP) were all developing accumulation patterns. These trades were timed welled as the alt-coins markets soon rallied with bitcoin and Ethereum.
Gain insights on navigating client questions and developing adoption strategies for this growing asset class into client portfolios.
This discussion aims to clarify the opportunities in the digital asset market for investment advisors and their clients. Topics will include:
Digital asset security
Future of cryptocurrencies
Wall Street is rapidly adopting digital assets into their universe. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and the NASDAQ have dedicated resources into building a robust Wall Street-grade infrastructure for the mass adoption of digital asset investing. Don’t delay in planning on how to effectively incorporate cryptocurrencies into your strategy.
Attractive Bitcoin prices and long awaited regulatory recognition of this new asset class will have many investors look to consider cryptocurrency for the first time. Some traditional and long standing clients will have questions like:
What exactly is a cryptocurrency?
How did cryptocurrencies get started?
How do cryptocurrencies work?
Most clients would find tremendous value in a clear overview of the asset class itself. Understanding the basics of digital assets, not only for potential upside but for the nature of digital value, can help determine cryptocurrency’s role in your client’s financial plan.
That’s why at Sarson Funds, we created Cryptocurrency 101: A Digital Asset Guide for Investors, to help provide investors and clients with an easy-to-read overview of what cryptocurrency is, and the origins behind digital assets.
We’ve made this fact card article available to all. Use the link below to view more and download the complimentary PDF.
In this week’s edition of the Blockchain Insider Report, the traders discuss strategies to navigate the recent fall in BTC prices, and possible strategies to position for an upside swing before the end of 2018.
Managing Partner John Sarson was the winner this week up 5.76% from a position of his portfolio being held in Crowd Machine which is up over 100% this week. Chaster, Eric and Conor were down 3.50%, 5.89% and 7.48%, respectively while the MVIS 100 Small-Cap Index is up 4.48% overall. It is worth noting that these numbers are slightly deceptive considering the last 2 weeks of price action in the market after bitcoin broke down from 6K. Since the drop, Fifth Khagan has lost 24% while the broader market is down close to 50%.
Everyone on the call was optimistic about the market for 2019, but still bearish for the rest of 2018. Chaster noted that NVT (Network Value to Transaction ratio) has fallen below the threshold that is considered overvalued for Bitcoin making it the perfect time to dollar-cost average into the market. John is bearish until the start of the new year with the hypothesis that new money is not eager to buy in a month before the end of the year for tax purposes, especially with the current state of the market. Conor is leaning bearish citing the weekly and monthly timeframe candles as evidence that the bottom is not in. While a short-term bounce on the higher timeframes is likely, Bitcoin will only form a lower high before further downside action.
Jason Penner gave us some insight into the tZERO STO from last year. The projects coins will be distributed on January 10th but will not be available on exchanges until August. The funding tZERO received was sanctioned by the SEC and was one of the first blockchain based projects to work within the framework of US regulations. Jason also mentioned that he will be meeting close contacts to the Decentraland project to discuss the idea of virtual real estate on their platform. Ravencoin was the primary topic of discussion this week which had a massive run of over 330% on Binance in the last 2 months. The price point to watch is the 380 Satoshi support level where buyers are likely to step in if the price continues to fall lower.
News Around the Blockchain
Floyd Mayweather and DJ Khaled are facing fines from the SEC after their promotion of ICOs in 2017. The Centra Tech ICO, which was promoted by both parties in 2017, was later classified as a security and was revealed to be fraudulent in the eyes of the SEC. Mayweather and DJ Khaled were both fined for promoting an unregistered security without disclosing payments from Centra Tech.
Dan Larimer, the CTO of Block.One, will be starting a new blockchain based currency project only months after the mainnet launch of his project EOS. Dan started off in the blockchain space as the creator of the cryptocurrency Bitshares and would later go on to create a blockchain based social media site called Steemit. He came up with the idea of EOS and held one of the largest ICO’s in 2017 that would later be nicknamed the “Ethereum Killer”. Larimer has been criticized in the past for moving on to other ventures before the completion of projects he had started.
Bitcoin reached bottom in December 2018 at $3150. Starting January 2, 2019, a wave of Wall Street money will prime the next cryptocurrency revival.
Hedge fund managers posses unique insight, into emerging client sentiment and into capital flows that are not yet printed. As a manager of cryptocurrencies with multiple digital asset offerings, we consider orderbook information a key component of our strategies. Firsthand observations of these cryptocurrency orders over time supports our conclusion that Bitcoin’s December 2018 price of $3150 is the ultimate low.
Bitcoin’s 83% selloff sparked renewed investment interest in digital assets. Most other hedge funds would agree (though they might not tell you), that a substantial number of institutional and high net worth prospects have reengaged and have committed capital to cryptocurrencies. If November’s crypto price plunge sparked the renewed interest, late December’s price stability helped solidify the asset class’s revival appeal.
There are over 900 cryptocurrency hedge funds worldwide with nearly 650 of those right here in the United States. At our funds, new limited partners who entered in November or December have been holding their investments until January 2nd. Why the wait? The are two reasons:
Few investors want an extra K1 form for just one month of management, and
Market stability had not yet manifested by December 1st, the cut off for most funds to take on new investments. As such, most cryptocurrency managers suggested that clients wait and come in on January 2nd.
On January 2nd, banks will re-open and hedge funds holding on to new deposits will be clear to wire deposits to cryptocurrency exchanges. We expect this influx of orders to be more than enough buying power to cause a massive surge in price – one that we expect to intensify throughout the week as managers scramble into Bitcoin looking for “crypto-beta” as Bitcoin starts moving.
We believe that the minor strength seen recently in the market reflects pockets of “nimble” investors taking positions before this institutional money gets deployed.
Bitcoin’s general rise in price since December 15th is evidence that buying pressure has already outstripped supply. For investors who can, we recommend taking cryptocurrency positions before this flurry of purchases leaves the slow-moving with higher prices to pay.
Conor was the winning trader this week down only 2%. The loss was occurred after being stopped out of a position in Bitcoin after holding cash for the majority of the week. Chaster and Eric were tied for 2nd with both trader posting a loss of 7.76%. John ended the week down 15% after holding through the selling pressure on Christmas Eve and Christmas. The MVIS top-100 index was down 12% overall, making it another week where Fifth Khagan outperformed the market.
Chaster was the winner of last week’s price prediction after calling $3800 #Bitcoin on Christmas day. John remained confident that #Bitcoin has seen the bottom at $3200 with the market rebounding from incoming money for 2019. Conor suggested that an inverted head and shoulders reversal pattern is in play and could be the start of a short-term rally if bulls can keep buy pressure up.
Lightning network was the topic of discussion for a good portion of the call. Kristof from Satoshi’s Dream remains skeptical of the lightning Networks ability to scale transactions citing the lack of both Bitcoin and nodes on the network. Conor is taking the middle of the road and believes it is too early to tell whether or not 2nd layer solutions like #LightningNetwork will solve the scaling problem without creating another form of banking via “hubs”. This topic remains highly controversial and only time will tell how Bitcoin will scale in the future.
Two congressman have introduced a bill that would exempt digital assets from being classified as securities. The “Token Taxonomy Act” would remove the authority from the #SEC to label ICOs as securities and would lead to the introduction a new framework for cryptocurrencies likely by another agency such as the CFTC. If the bill passes, it would certainly be seen as another step forward for a market that is still in its infancy.
While many have left the #cryptocurrency market this year as prices waned, the ecosystem continues to grow and improve. New legislation from the US and foreign governments could be the next step in bringing public interest back to digital assets. It seems the perfect storm is brewing as the bear market establishes a bottom price and creates a new foundation for the digital asset class to grow. Technological advances in blockchain scaling, along with institutional interest certainly paints a bright future for #Bitcoin.
Eric was the winner this week up 31.9% with gains from #BitcoinCash and #BitcoinSV as the market rebounded. John came in 2nd this week with a gain of 23.27% in his account with BAT dragging down his portfolio. Chaster was 3rd this week up 1.23% after taking a more conservative approach and staying mostly in cash. Conor came in last place this week with no gain or loss after holding his account in cash. The MVIS 100 index is up 31.8% this week after recovering from the constant sell pressure over the last 2 weeks. While the market had a good performance this week, it is still down substantially since #Bitcoin broke down from 6k. Trader performance overall was below our Index, however, #FifthKhagan still has a substantial amount of alpha over the MVIS index.
#Bitcoin had a significant bounce from the lows this week with the majority of our circle calling for an increase in Bitcoin’s price by Christmas morning. John made his prediction of $4100 with Eric calling for $4250. Our Chief Marketing Officir, Jahon, made the bold prediction of $4800 on grounds of political destabilization from the government shutdown looming and the resignation of James Mattis. The only 2 bears of the group are Chaster and Conor with calls for $3800 and $3600, respectively.
There was much to discuss this week with the recent price action in the market. The topic of #Ethereum as a leader in the cryptocurrency space was questioned by John who sees rivals such as #EOS and #Cardano developing better use cases and technology over the long run. One of Fifth Khagan’s General partner’s, Kristof, weighed in by stating prices do not currently reflect the fundamentals on many projects referring to #Ethereum’s current dominance over many of its competitors. It was mentioned that miners are still providing sell pressure to cover operational costs, but most likely at a loss as there are few mining operations that are remaining profitable in this bear market. The Chinese New Year was a topic of discussion where there is typically a sell off prior to the week-long event in February, followed by a small bump up in price afterwards.
John has become bullish again after the recent price action in the market and is optimistic about the influx of new capital in January. It appears that 2019 is setting up to be a good year for both the price appreciation of cryptocurrencies, as well as user adoption in many countries that continue to have fiat currency problems. Weakness in the stock market combined with rising interest rates and political uncertainty could be the driving force in bringing new money into alternative investments such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
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